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最近有不少人认为美国通胀差不多了，美元收割也进入尾声，原因是10月CPI确实大降，同时他们认为离岸人民币汇率最低值7.37应该是本轮贬值的底部了。
说实话，我很反感那些只看到一些东西，然后各种胡吹胡扯的言论，甚至有时候感觉他们有点像公知的“新闻发言人”。
如果说人民币汇率见底，这个可能性还是比较大的，之前离岸汇率最低也不过7.2，这一次快到7.4了，美元强势只是部分原因，更多是经济放缓下的市场情绪。
现在大招一个接一个，经济筑底起飞也就是半年一年的事，甚至说最低的已经经历了，所以人民币汇率未来再贬到哪里去，概率也不大。
不过，要说美国通胀见顶了，或者说大概率见顶了，显然不可能，我下去查了一组数据，数据源是美联储的。
就在疫情之前，2019年第四季度，美国家庭持有约1万亿美元的实际现金，到今年第二季度，这一数字已经跃升至4.7万亿美元。
再细化一些，根据美国经济分析局的数据，2020年美国个人储蓄率(可支配收入减去支出，除以可支配收入)为17%，二战以来从未有过。
当然这些美钞都是印的，但注意，上面数字是经通胀调整以后的，意味着美国的消费潜力是很大，也可以认为货币通胀距离完全释放还有很长时间。
要是这个想不清楚，那一组数据对比一下，2019年美国GDP21.38万亿美元，到2021年是23万亿美元，这个数字增量再加上今年（截至3季度）的增量也不到2万亿美元。
说明什么，美国这三年的GDP增加量还不如老百姓手里的现金增加的多，充斥这么的钞票，通胀怎么可能见顶。
换句话说，对老百姓来说，现在利率是高了，消费积极性受到压制，但时间过个几个月或半年一年的，该消费还消费，因为已经喜欢现在的市场利率。
而且手里有这么多钱，放着储蓄也不是美国人的风格，即便是不在美国本土消费，对世界来说通胀也仍然存在。
既然通胀还要持续，那么美元收割也不会一时半儿结束，不过要注意，美国准备玩新花样了，套路还是老套路。
事情是这么回事：这个月是全球老大的聚会，从非洲到亚洲，美国作为搅屎棍，哪哪都会出现，其中有两个重点不停地渲染，而且始终拿中国说事。一是气候问题，二就是债务问题，美国把两个联合起来胡说：
前者，拜登到处都说要与中国合作，然后鼓动中国掏钱，大家一起解决气候问题。
后者，耶伦到处诋毁，说我国不配合减债，全球欠钱的地方太多，需要我们给点力。
我们来看看美国收割新套路：
上组数据：发展中国家政府需要在2024年底前偿还或展期约3500亿美元的美元和欧元计价债券。
在非洲的气候峰会上，这些国家要求发达国家援助，不然玩不了“碳中和”，美国这个时候玩了阴谋：
说是，从2016年以来美国大自然保护协会有个项目，还不起债的国家可以债务重组或者延期，里面会诞生隐形收入，这部分钱得用来发展环保。
对外上，美国看起来像是做了“善事”一样，实际上美国用美元收割赚的钱的一部分投在了“碳中和”，要知道从2016年开始到现在的六年时间，光加息就有四年。
“高明之处”在于，这些收割的财富相对来说属于预期，不是现实，美元该捞多少还是多少，那些未来的或者捞不到的就放在了气候“援助”上。
如果这些国家想要摆脱命运，还有一条就是和债权人谈判，最后把谈不拢的责任甩到我们身上，同时美元加息仍在不停地割他们韭菜，而若是最终谈妥了美国就说自己的功劳。
阴险之处在于，美国拿的牌似乎站在“道德制高点”，我们不得不接，毕竟全球哪哪都在遭遇气候灾害。
所以，我们现在一方面得在债务减免上下功夫，另一方面得抓住有利的条件——发达国家1000亿美元的承诺。
第一个已经做得很好了，减了17个国家部分债务，而且仍然在与其他非洲国家，以及南亚、东南亚部分国家谈判，给他们减轻负担。
后面一个以后得多多利用，美国现在到处在世界说我国应该和美国玩一样的“碳中和”目标，目的就是遏制中国发展。
美国政客号称要和中国竞争“十年”，到时候高下立判，可见围绕“碳中和”的气候问题美国一定会出更多的阴谋诡计。
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现在巳进入农历的11月下旬，离腊月还有10天的时间。 我们这儿的农村有句俗语，进入腊月就是年。不少农民都想趁年集的时间，做些小生意，想办法挣两个钱过年。 那么做些什么生意呢，依据本…
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由于能源价格上涨和通货膨胀率导致生活成本显着增加，像海外英国等仍面临严重的现金危机，但是过去一年仍有在eBay上销售最赚钱的产品。 根据研究调查报道，近几个月通货膨胀率略有下降，但…
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近期收到一个读者私信我，说楼下一个卖牛肉的老板，生意非常好。这些年不但送了两个孩子上学，而且还买了一辆20多万的车子。虽然不知道具体赚了多少钱，但感觉上应该是挣了不少的。昨晚，他和…
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林佳琪，出生于广东省广州市。 2000年开始和朋友一起创业，做污水处理生意，到了2016年，已经积累了几百万身家。 要说这个时候的林佳琪，无人不羡慕，无人不夸赞。 可就在这2016…
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大家伙，今天继续给大家分享小白宝妈在家上手即可操作的兼职副业项目：手绘漫画头像 今天看到一个很有意思的小项目，给别人制作手绘头像赚取收益。大家都知道，这个时代大部分人都很有个性化思…