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刘俏 澎湃新闻记者 周頔 摄
在11月4日举行的“2022清洁能源技术与双碳科学论坛”上，北京大学光华管理学院院长刘俏表示，碳中和意味着技术的巨大变革，其背后对应着对经济的巨大影响，体现为经济结构和增长动能的巨大变迁，因此碳中和不仅是科学技术问题，也是经济学和管理学的问题。
当前我国人均GDP约是美国的1/6，刘俏表示，在这样的情况下寻求碳中和，意味着很长一段时间里要“先立后破”，要在经济发展和碳中和之间找到一个平衡点。与此同时，碳中和需要百万亿级的投资，而这个投资最关键的，是要以市场化的价格投向关键节点行业、节点领域，如何建立有效的碳价格形成机制是很重要的一个环节，未来需要把这一环补上。
刘俏表示，经济学是研究稀缺资源如何有效配置的一门科学，碳排放权是稀缺资源，应该如何在不同行业和地区有效配置？这是经济学研究的范畴。与此同时，税收政策、技术变革等对不同产业的结构变迁会有不一样的影响，需要找到牵动碳中和上下游产业的节点行业，这样才有利于科学地制定碳中和的实施路径。
我国为什么要在当下提出双碳目标？刘俏表示，因为中国经济已经完成了工业化进程，当前全要素生产率（TFP）增速在下降，而一般来说一个国家的TFP增速会占到整个GDP增速的50%左右。2010年以来，中国的TFP增速已经降到了2%左右，如果未来长期保持这一状态，就意味着我国未来GDP增速长期将保持在4%左右。但当前我国的TFP水平相比于西方还有差距，所以需要保持一个较高的TFP增速，而碳中和需要新的投资，这恰好带来了TFP增长的新动能。
“中国到2060年要实现碳中和，到底需要多少钱？目前各种研究给出的范围非常宽泛，有人讲要140万亿（元人民币，同下），也有人讲要500万亿。”刘俏介绍了三种测算口径：
第一，国际可再生能源署（IRENA）在2021年发布的年度报告中测算称，全球实现二氧化碳零排放的总投资规模至少要达到131万亿美元，我国目前碳排放规模占全球比例约为28%。以1：6.5-6.8的汇率折算，我国大约需要255-270万亿元的投资，相当于未来30多年时间，每年投入GDP总量的7%-8%。
第二，北大光华从未来投资率对碳中和投资总需求做了测算，依托对中国经济发展的中长期判断，如果2023年至2035年我国的GDP实现年化5%的增速，之后调整至3.5%，并在2036年前以每年7%的GDP规模进行碳中和投资，2036年起调整为4%，折现率定为5%，则大约需要191万亿元人民币的总投资。如果投资策略稍微激进些，将投资率提高至9%，2036年起调整为5%，则需要242万亿元。
第三，如果基于碳排放交易市场，从碳排放量和碳价格角度进行核算，碳达峰时排放量或为120亿吨，到2060年降到45亿吨，则测算下来需要136-188万亿元人民币的规模。
刘俏表示，不管用什么方法测算碳中和所需要的投资，都在200万亿元左右，而且分布在未来不到四十年的时间里，这对中国经济、对中国全要素生产率拉动会带来很大影响。
数以百万亿级的投资，究竟要投向什么行业？他说，构建我国碳中和愿景下经济转型模式的关键在于确定碳节点行业；理解节点行业内的碳中和冲击如何在经济体系内传导，改变生产函数和消费效用函数。
聚焦投资节点行业和节点领域，也是中国式现代化、中国发展模式的特点，历来都是投资节点行业，通过节点行业的溢出效应带动上下游产业崛起，最后形成有为政府与有效市场的结合。把这个思路延续到新的发展阶段，在碳中和时代，哪些行业是节点行业需要进一步分析，目前刘俏正在做这方面的研究。
“比如根据能源消耗的情况，根据投入产出比，测算温室气体特别是碳在整个经济网络里面传递的情况，从而识别在整个生产网络里面对碳减排、碳中和最敏感的、影响最大的行业。”刘俏表示，如有色金属、钢铁、煤炭、电力、化工等都是按照碳生产网络、根据不同特征变量确定的碳节点行业，应优先鼓励这些行业的技术变革。
刘俏表示，碳中和的有效投资需要碳价的指导，要建立有效的碳价发现机制。中和愿景下发现有效碳价格有三大机制：碳排放权分配与交易、碳价格与资本市场、建设碳资产证券化市场，形成碳市场定价的锚。
此外，刘俏还指出，当前碳价格的效率并不高，根据“十四五”规划，到2025年也只有七八千家企业参与碳排放权交易市场，而当前我国有1.6亿个市场主体、3000万家大中型企业，让这些微观主体参与碳市场交易，短期内不太容易实现。这需要将金融体系、金融产品的价格发现功能挖掘出来，需要推出一些跟碳相关的金融产品。
在谈及碳中和带给企业的启示时，刘俏表示，要提高企业碳足迹和气候风险披露的透明度；需要求所有公司报告直接碳排放和全价值链的碳排放；要确立公司的碳中和转型计划；要参与碳市场交易。
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目前疫情严峻，到处增加风控管控区，哪里也不敢去，怕出去回不来了，又怕回来出不去了。干脆，不出去了，在家做手机副业赚点吃饭钱。 单位从年前津南区疫情那会儿就封了，封闭式管理快五个月了…
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近日，广东省农业农村厅公布《关于公布2022年省级家庭农场示范创建评选评定和监测合格单位名单的通知》，决定评定全省206个家庭农场为2022年省级示范家庭农场单位。其中，湛江4个家…
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虽然说现如今各行各业都很饱和，竞争也比较激烈，但是总有一些机会是留给普通人的。 比如在之前的创业文章中给大家分享的废塑料回收加工生意，再就是办个小型木料加工厂等等，其实这些小生意都…
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你想听真话吗？人间清醒 ，人间真实在这！我个人用了10多张流量卡（有物联卡，也有校园卡，也有官方优惠套餐），同时还在通信公司实习2年半，摸爬滚打多年的血泪经验、隐藏套餐和方法总结统…
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对于很多想要创业的人来说，由于各种各样的原因可都都迟迟不能行动，比如考虑成本、场地或者又是人工等问题。 其实在创业初期有这些顾虑那是很正常的，但是反过来想，什么行业又能轻松做成功呢…