本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者于建平 见习记者 田野 北京报道
7月31日，交通运输部和财政部联合印发《关于实施老旧营运货车报废更新的通知》（以下简称《通知》），进一步细化报废更新及购置新能源或国六标准货车的补贴政策。
而就在《通知》发布的6天前，国家发改委和财政部联合发布《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》（以下简称《措施》）。其中明确提出，支持报废国三及以下排放标准营运类柴油货车，加快更新低排放货车。
两项政策的相继出台，能否为低迷许久的货车市场注入活力？
货车市场增长乏力
在经历了几年的红利期后，如今货车市场已经从增量市场转入存量市场。
根据中汽协发布的数据，今年上半年，商用车市场整体走势相对平稳。从主要品类来看，卡车产销量呈小幅增长态势。
具体来看，1—6月，卡车产销分别完成176.4万辆和182.4万辆，同比分别增长1.4％和4.4％。与上年同期相比，除微型卡车产量小幅下降外，其他三大类卡车品种产销均呈不同程度的增长。
中国汽车工业协会副秘书长陈士华表示，尽管销量实现稳步增长，但当前商用车市场仍面临较大压力，“虽然各厂家批发数在增长，但是上牌数、保险都在下滑，经销商库存积压问题突出，市场竞争激烈。尤其是进入二季度，重卡细分市场显得后劲不足，4月销量环比下降25％，5月销量环比下降8％、同比下降2％，6月市场依然未能走出低谷，销量同比环比双双下滑。”
陈士华进一步指出，本轮以旧换新政策出台，将有效激发卡车市场的消费活力，为商用车整体销量实现稳步增长提供有力支撑。
此次《通知》明确，新能源重卡可获得最高14万元的补贴（含报废补贴4.5万元及新购补贴9.5万元），国六重卡最高可享11万元补贴（含报废补贴4.5万元及新购补贴6.5万元）。补贴政策实施期限为2024年7月31日—2024年12月31日。《通知》还单独提到，仅购买新能源城市冷链配送货车补贴标准为3.5万元/辆。
而《措施》中也明确提出，报废并更新购置符合条件的货车，平均每辆车补贴8万元；无报废只更新购置符合条件的货车，平均每辆车补贴3.5万元；只提前报废老旧营运类柴油货车，平均每辆车补贴3万元。
“以旧换新政策主要是拉动老旧营运类柴油货车的更新，尤其是国三及以下排放标准营运类柴油货车，这类车型的污染相对比较大，为了促进终端更新车辆，国家这次给了较大的补贴力度，应该能促进部分终端卡车市场的增长，特别是纯电、天然气等新能源货车市场，具有很大的增长潜力。”商联会名誉会长、乘联会秘书长崔东树发文指出。
他谈道，近几年国家一直没有明确的货车置换更新政策，积累的老旧货车是比较多的，但很多不是营运类，因此本轮政策拉动的主要是无报废只更新购置符合条件的货车。
政策将惠及新能源车型
对于以旧换新政策是否能带来一波销量红利，终端市场看法不一。
一位长期从事商用车行业人士分析称，目前中重卡的保有量在960万辆，即便出台相应置换政策，也难以形成大规模、爆发性增长，同时受物流需求、运量匹配及运价皆低迷的形势下，用户购买或换车意愿降低。另外，近两年房地产开工率下降，以前占比在60%—70%的工程车、渣土车需求也大幅下滑。
北京一家代理福田和重汽的经销商负责人韩女士告诉《华夏时报》记者，从目前的市场行情来看，以旧换新政策的作用还没有显现出来，卡车用户更多是持“观望态度”。
“一方面是建筑行业不景气，卡车市场面临车多活少的窘境，大部分卡车用户都是贷款买车，能用一天赚一天，没必要在市场行情差、竞争激烈的情况下再换新车；另一方面，营运类车辆的养护成本也很高，因为需要加装诸如北斗等辅助设备，加上车辆其他配件的老旧更新，一年的养护成本在2万元左右，这块费用也加重了用户负担。”韩女士介绍道。
她进一步表示，虽然北京地方环保政策非常严格，国三、国四货车已经不允许过户、验车，但有些卡车用户宁可不要车，也不再考虑换车。这类车主普遍从业时间长，即将到达退休年龄，换购新车的可能性也随之降低。
“其实厂家给的优惠政策都很好，原来40多万元的车，加上各项补贴后，能便宜十几万元，但是依旧没有多少车主换车。即便是集团大客户，买车也很谨慎。”韩女士补充道。
上汽红岩华中销售公司总经理邓成伟则从补贴资金如何落地的角度，提出了自己的担忧。“虽然国家给了各项补贴政策，但是具体落实到地方，如何执行？有哪些部门去执行？我们也在等待。”
邓成伟对《华夏时报》记者表示，如果以旧换新政策能有效落地，还是能为货车市场带来较大利好。“随着国家对于排放政策的日趋加严，近几年柴油货车的比重已经在持续下降。新增车辆中，天然气和新能源车辆的比重在逐年上升。当前来看，新车置换的增长点主要体现在以下方面：牵引车市场中，短途、长途货运车型会依次切换为新能源车和天然气车，剩下的细分领域会切换为符合排放标准的柴油车型；自卸车和部分工程车市场，新能源车比重也会持续上升。”
其实市场销量也证明了上述判断。据机构发布的数据，今年上半年，新能源商用车销量达22.8万辆，同比增长119%，市场渗透率为16%，显著优于去年同期水平。尤其6月，销量突破4.6万辆，同比增长88%，渗透率升至21%，比去年同期提高了10个百分点，彰显强劲上升势头。
“目前，经销商和客户都在等待下一步政策的实施情况，我们还是希望政府能出台切实有效的措施，让补贴政策能真正落到实处。”邓成伟表示。
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